The Take: Will the US force regime change in Cuba?
US Economic Pressure on Cuba
US president is waging a maximum pressure campaign on Cuba’s already faltering economy, aiming to economically collapse the communist regime in Havana by choking off vital oil imports.
Impact of Oil Supply Cuts
Cubans are cooking on charcoal and facing worsening power blackouts after the US cut the island off from Venezuelan oil exports, highlighting the severe impact of the economic sanctions on daily life.
Government and Policy Context
The Trump administration is seeking Cuban government insiders to facilitate a regime change by year-end, following the ouster of Venezuelan leadership. Lawsuits by an oil giant and Cuban-American hardliners could lay the groundwork for US-backed regime change in Cuba.
Analysis and Outlook
Experts suggest that economic coercion alone cannot force regime change, and Cuba’s government is very unlikely to fall due to internal stability and limited external economic pressure. The key variable remains the resilience of the Cuban regime under sustained economic strain.